Publications

A collection of my academic and non-academic contributions, including peer-reviewed articles, conference presentations, ongoing research projects, news articles, and commentaries

Exchange Rate Volatility in Bangladesh: An Exploration of the Leverage Effect of Positive and Negative Economic News

Published

Cited 0 Times

This paper investigates how positive and negative economic news affect exchange rate volatility in Bangladesh, focusing on the BDT/USD rate from 1982 to 2022. Using an EGARCH (1,1) model, the study reveals a reversed leverage effect, where positive news (currency appreciation) leads to higher volatility than negative news. This finding contrasts with traditional financial theory, which usually associates greater volatility with bad news. The study highlights unique dynamics in Bangladesh’s exchange market and offers valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and financial analysts. It contributes to the literature by uncovering asymmetric volatility behavior in an emerging economy context.

Keywords:

Exchange rate, Volatility, GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, Leverage effect, Bangladesh

Ice, Power, And Ambition: The Global Struggle For The Arctic

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This article shows how rapid Arctic warming is reshaping global geopolitics, turning the once-stable High North into a zone of rising strategic competition. It explains why major powers, especially Russia, the US, China, and NATO members, are intensifying their pursuit of new sea routes, resources, and military advantage, even as governance mechanisms like the Arctic Council weaken. Ultimately, the article argues that the Arctic is entering a protracted struggle over rules and influence rather than becoming a new global shipping hub.

Beyond First-Past-The-Post: Can Proportional Representation Transform Bangladesh’s Electoral Landscape?

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Proportional Representation (PR) has returned to Bangladesh’s political debate as an alternative to the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system. Smaller parties advocate for it, while major parties like the BNP remain opposed. Used in 93 countries through party list, mixed-member, or single transferable vote systems, PR aims to make elections more representative. Supporters argue it could reduce electoral violence, manipulation, and costs, while promoting fairer inclusion of women and minorities. Critics, however, warn of political fragmentation and governance challenges, raising doubts about whether Bangladesh’s fragile political culture is ready for such a reform.

Transatlantic Turbulence: How Trump’s Second Term Reshapes US-Europe Diplomacy

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Donald Trump’s second term as the 47th US President heightens transatlantic concerns. His first term’s “America First” policies strained European relations, triggering trade disputes, NATO tensions, and weakening joint engagement. Now, Europe faces uncertainty, with potential trade wars and defense realignments on the horizon. The European Union must protect economic stability and security partnerships amid this volatility. Trump’s approach raises serious questions about the resilience of traditional alliances and the future of US–EU cooperation, challenging Europe to adapt strategically while preserving its collective influence on global trade and security.

Reassessing Alliances: The Maldives’ Foreign Policy Transformation with India

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This article examines the Maldives’ shifting foreign policy, focusing on its ties with India. Under former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the Maldives followed an “India First” approach, strengthening relations. The election of President Mohamed Muizzu, who initially supported an “India Out” stance, marked a notable change. Although he ordered the withdrawal of Indian military personnel, Muizzu later sought to maintain good ties with India due to economic pressures. During a visit to India, he recognized its role as a key ally and announced cooperative initiatives, including a $50 million aid package, highlighting the Maldives’ need to balance relations with India and China amid evolving geopolitics.

The Hard Right Riddle in the EU Elections

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The European Union is experiencing a significant rightward shift, marked by the rise of far-right and populist movements across member states. This change has unsettled established political dynamics, raising concerns about the future of EU governance, diplomacy, and continental cohesion. Key election results in France, Germany, and Austria highlight the growing influence of right-wing factions, which could hinder the EU’s ability to address global challenges such as climate change, security, and economic competition. The long-term effects of this ideological shift on European unity and governance remain uncertain.

Is Trump Poised for a Spectacular Comeback in the US Presidential Race?

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This article examines the lead-up to the November elections, with former President Donald Trump expected to announce his candidacy against incumbent Joe Biden. Trump’s South Carolina primary victory solidified his frontrunner status, despite initial Republican skepticism. His silence on opponent Nikki Haley highlights his focus on the general election. Legal challenges, including a civil fraud penalty and ongoing Capitol riot litigation, persist. Nonetheless, Trump’s “America First” agenda and resilience maintain strong Republican support. Biden’s record faces scrutiny, setting the stage for a high-stakes rematch that could shape American politics.

Hoarding Dollars: How China is Jeopardizing the World Economy

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The article analyzes how China’s vast dollar reserves, accumulated through yuan devaluation and trade surpluses, threaten global economic stability. By heavily investing in U.S. Treasury bonds, China has become closely intertwined with the U.S., creating mutual vulnerabilities to policy shifts. The piece argues that instead of stockpiling dollars, China should manage its reserves more transparently and collaborate with other major economies to develop a balanced, sustainable financial system. Such reforms could reduce systemic risks, limit global instability, and promote a more resilient international economic framework.

De-escalating Tensions in the Middle East Through Bilateral Talks

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The article examines an unexpected shift in U.S. policy toward Iran, signaling potential progress in international relations. After years of tension, the U.S. is exploring diplomatic options, focusing on Iran’s nuclear program and the release of American hostages. Following the 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, sanctions and global concerns over Iran’s rapid uranium enrichment have intensified. Direct negotiations through Oman aim to address these issues while managing U.S.–Russia tensions and economic impacts. Despite challenges, a short-term U.S.–Iran agreement could reduce regional tensions and pave the way for closer cooperation.

Are We Ready to Withstand Turkiye Like Earthquakes?

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The article highlights the devastating effects of earthquakes, citing recent events in Türkiye and Syria, and warns that Bangladesh is highly vulnerable due to its position at the convergence of the Indian, Burma, and Tibetan plates. Historical quakes and energy accumulation indicate major earthquakes are possible, threatening densely populated cities like Dhaka, especially with many old buildings. The piece stresses the urgent need for stricter building codes, retrofitting older structures, disaster preparedness, coordinated emergency response, public education, and proactive urban planning to mitigate future earthquake risks in Bangladesh.

Ongoing Forex Reserve Crisis and Currency Swap

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The article examines Bangladesh’s economic strain amid global inflation, the energy crisis, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Supply chain disruptions, soaring imports, rising consumer prices, and dwindling foreign reserves have intensified pressure on the economy. Efforts to manage the dollar shortage include import restrictions and limited overseas spending. Currency swaps with India and Russia face challenges due to trade imbalances and alternative payment systems. While Bangladesh maintains a trade surplus with Russia, executing swaps is complex. Economists suggest using third currencies and strategic planning to reduce dollar dependence and safeguard financial stability.

Dealing with Global Financial Crises: Pitfalls and Drawbacks

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Bangladesh’s economy faces severe strain due to inflation, a trade deficit, declining foreign reserves, rising debt, and a global energy crisis, worsened by the Russia Ukraine war. Reliance on wheat and maize imports, a record trade imbalance, and falling reserves, currently around $38 billion, have intensified the crisis. Import and export activities are hampered by limited dollar availability, while energy shortages disrupt daily life. Foreign debt and defaulted loans are escalating, with criticism of large scale projects. Economists warn that without urgent fiscal and monetary reforms, Bangladesh risks a severe economic catastrophe similar to Sri Lanka’s collapse.

A Meteoric Resurgence of Shehbaz Sharif

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Pakistan’s politics, historically dominated by patriarchal family systems, shifted when Imran Khan ended decades of rule by Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League and Bilawal Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party. Despite initial success, Khan lost power after three and a half years due to rising inflation, currency devaluation, and political conspiracies involving opposition parties, religious leaders, and former allies. Following a no-confidence vote in April, Shehbaz Sharif, known for his administrative experience and the brother of Nawaz Sharif, assumed the premiership. Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister removed through a parliamentary no-confidence motion.

The Impact of Ethnicity on Earning Gaps in Bangladesh: Evidence from the Chittagong Hill Tracts

Data collection and analysis are in progress

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The Impact of Climate Change on Labor Health and Agricultural Production: A Case Study of Agricultural Practice in Rangpur, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Dinajpur, and Sunamganj Districts

Analysis is in progress

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Barriers to Accessing Green Credit and Sustainable Investment in Bangladesh’s Industrial Sector: The Experience from the Textile Industry

Literature Review is in progress

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The Role of Green Finance in Mitigating the Environmental Cost of Industrialization: Evidence from Bangladesh